Fiddling the figures on student fees

The Sutton Trust has abused its polling evidence

The Sutton Trust, an education charity, has today released some polling evidence on children's attitudes to the costs of higher education.  The charity claims that

Two thirds of 11-16 year olds have university finance fears...[and] worry about the cost of going to university

 This has been swallowed by the BBC, who report that

Two-thirds (65%) of 11 to 16-year-olds polled for the Sutton Trust voiced concerns about university costs

 A quick examination of the Sutton Trust's poll, at the bottom of its press release, shows that this is a distortion of the evidence.  The 'two-thirds' figure comes from the fact that roughly that proportion responded to the question

Thinking about the cost of going to university, which ONE of the following is the biggest concern for you? 

by selecting the prompted answers 'tuition fees', 'the cost of living as a student', or 'not being able to earn money while you're studying', as opposed to 'Does not apply – I’m not concerned about the cost of university', 'Don't know', or failing to tick a box.

This is an incredibly leading polling question. The charity has prompted children to think about the costs, and then asked them to pick the worst one. Imagine we polled on the following question:

Thinking about the risks involved in flying, which ONE of the following is of biggest concern to you?

With the options 'pilot error', 'engine failure',  'terrorism', and 'does not apply - I'm not concerned about the risks of flying'.  It is highly likely that a majority would pick one of the first three options; we've made them focus in on the risks and asked them to pick the worst one. I can easily identify the risk of terrorism as of 'more concern' to me than pilot error, even though I very rarely worry about either and neither would influence my decision to fly. What we have not done is asked whether our sample usually worries about the risks of flying, or how significant those worries are when it comes to their decision to fly.  If two-thirds selected one of the first three options, we would certainly not be justified in concluding that 'two-thirds worry about flying'.

This is irresponsible use of polling data from the charity, and poor journalism from the BBC who have reproduced the charity's dubious claim.  This is particularly damaging when it comes to student finance, as we face an uphill battle against poor understanding among the public of how the system actually works. This story has the potential to make children think "everyone else is worrying about student finance - that means I should", even though they certainly should not. That works against increasing access to university.

Finally, the Sutton Trust has advocated means testing tuition fees, despite the fact that they are currently paid only on the condition that you earn a significant salary.  This is bizarre; if, as they claim, children worry about fees despite this conditionality, what makes them think they will understand a complicated means-testing system any better?

The EU is not a priority issue for voters

What is driving the Britain-on-way-out headlines?

For several months now, there has been a debate raging in the UK over the costs and benefits of European Union membership.  This is puzzling, because voters have not ranked the EU as an important issue in years. Indeed, recent polling by Lord Ashcroft, discussed here by Mike Smithson of politicalbetting.com, shows only 17% of voters naming resolving Britain's future with the European Union as one of their top three priority issues.

Why, then, is there now near-constant discussion of Britain's relationship with Europe?  The immediate cause is probably that the UK Independence Party (UKIP) have been doing well in the polls, overtaking the Liberal Democrats in several.  This could be the result of many factors that are not an obsession with Europe: a right-wing disgruntlement with the coalition, and the need for a new outlet for a protest vote given the Liberal Democrats' role in government, are the most obvious two.  Indeed, only 27% of those considering voting UKIP name Europe as a priority issue. UKIP's rise has got the Tories running scared, as they have been the ones losing most support to Nigel Farage's party.  This has given right-wing Tory MPs an excuse to vocally demand more Euroscepticism (which they want anyway), without regard for the true priorities of voters.  The prevalence of Europe in the headlines due to the sovereign debt crisis has also stirred the pot.

The Ashcroft polling does reveal immigration as a priority issue for many, and it would be wrong to deny that immigration and European Union membership are closely linked. But the idea that most Britons are waking up every day and bemoaning "rule from Brussels" is clearly off the mark, no matter the headlines.

EDIT: It has been correctly pointed out to me that the poll I cited above is easily criticised on a number of grounds.  Apologies.  There is plenty of other, more rigorous evidence.  For example, Europe did not even register on the chart here , from the August Ipsos-Mori Issues Index.  Again, concerns about immigration do register strongly.