Saturday 12 January 2013

The EU is not a priority issue for voters

What is driving the Britain-on-way-out headlines?

For several months now, there has been a debate raging in the UK over the costs and benefits of European Union membership.  This is puzzling, because voters have not ranked the EU as an important issue in years. Indeed, recent polling by Lord Ashcroft, discussed here by Mike Smithson of politicalbetting.com, shows only 17% of voters naming resolving Britain's future with the European Union as one of their top three priority issues.

Why, then, is there now near-constant discussion of Britain's relationship with Europe?  The immediate cause is probably that the UK Independence Party (UKIP) have been doing well in the polls, overtaking the Liberal Democrats in several.  This could be the result of many factors that are not an obsession with Europe: a right-wing disgruntlement with the coalition, and the need for a new outlet for a protest vote given the Liberal Democrats' role in government, are the most obvious two.  Indeed, only 27% of those considering voting UKIP name Europe as a priority issue. UKIP's rise has got the Tories running scared, as they have been the ones losing most support to Nigel Farage's party.  This has given right-wing Tory MPs an excuse to vocally demand more Euroscepticism (which they want anyway), without regard for the true priorities of voters.  The prevalence of Europe in the headlines due to the sovereign debt crisis has also stirred the pot.

The Ashcroft polling does reveal immigration as a priority issue for many, and it would be wrong to deny that immigration and European Union membership are closely linked. But the idea that most Britons are waking up every day and bemoaning "rule from Brussels" is clearly off the mark, no matter the headlines.

EDIT: It has been correctly pointed out to me that the poll I cited above is easily criticised on a number of grounds.  Apologies.  There is plenty of other, more rigorous evidence.  For example, Europe did not even register on the chart here , from the August Ipsos-Mori Issues Index.  Again, concerns about immigration do register strongly.

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